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Math · Statistics And Probability
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Problem 2 (8 Points) Circle the right answer and perform the corresponding computations. A market research firms conducts studies regarding the success of new products. The company is not always perfect in predicting the success. Suppose that there is a 50% chance that any new product would be successful (and a 50% chance that it would fail). In the past, for all new products that ultimately were successful, 80% were predicted to be successful (and the other 20% were inaccurately predicted to be failures). In addition, for all new products that were ultimately failures, 70% were predicted to be failures (and the other 30% were inaccurately predicted to be successes) What is the a priori probability that a new product would be a success? (2P) a) 0.50 b) 0.80 c) 0.70 d) 0.60 e) 0.95 If the market research predicted that the product would be a success, what is the probability that it would actually be a success? (6P) a) 0.27 b) 0.73 c) 0.80 d) 0.24 e) 1.00I

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