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What type of probabilities can be used for the below presented data? List and show calculations
What is the Net Present Value, show calculations

What are the expected values?

Is probability bias present?

 

 

Catanza Technologies was founded in Brisbane in 2002 at Eagle Farm as a specialist in

industrial sensor technology. In 2008, they expanded into industrial robots, however this

sector fell into decline leading-up to the departure of automotive manufacturers from

Australia by 2017. In 2014 they launched a commercial grade robotic floor cleaner which has

had a steady growth in revenues and market share.

The company’s turnover by product type is shown below:

 

 

Product 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial Sensors 16.2 12.8 19.4 16.9 17.2
Industrial Robots 8.2 6.4 4.9 4.7 5.1
Robotic Floor Cleaner 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6

 

 

 

The company is now (January 2019) considering the development of commercial robotic

lawn management tools and equipment and, as a first step, a detailed plan has been put

forward to produce a commercial grade robotic lawnmower (code named the RLM19). Market

research was conducted in 2015-2016 and this revealed that commercial customers make

their decisions in this market on the basis of mowing area per day based on running time per

charge and battery charging time, maximum height of cut, precision of navigation, ease of

programming, adaptability to uneven surfaces, hill-climbing ability, obstacle sensing and

avoidance, price, safety and anti-theft.

 

Taking this market research information into account, the company is now seeking to develop

a production prototype based on one of two different approaches. Electric wire (EW)

perimeter or GPS and sensing navigation (GPS). For the EW model, a wire is placed around

the perimeter of the area to be mown and then connected to an electrical source. This mower

is programmed not to cross the wire. Because of the need to lay wire and the battery life the

EW model will have a mowing area of about 3000 square metres per day. The GPS model

would use sensors to detect garden edges and also GPS and mapping data to navigate

without use of the wire. This enables them to be more versatile and suited to larger areas of

up to 12000 square metres per day.

 

The market research and development of the designs so far have already cost $1.65 million.

If a decision to continue is made, it is hoped that a successful prototype can be developed by

December 2019.

 

For the EW prototype, the company's chief engineer, Scott Shorten, has estimated that there

is a 75% chance that the December target could be achieved for the EW model with a further

investment of $1.75m. If the target is not achieved, the company will review the situation in

January 2020. It could decide to abandon the entire project or to allow further work on the

prototype. Shorten estimates that modification of an unsuccessful prototype would cost

around $0.8 million and the modifications would take an additional six months to implement.

He is, however, sure that all problems would be overcome by end June 2020.

 

For the GPS prototype, Shorten estimates that there is a 60% chance that the December

target could be achieved for the GPS model with a further investment of $3.3m. If the target

is not achieved, the company will review the situation in January 2020. It could decide to

abandon the entire project or to allow further work on the prototype. Shorten estimates that

modification of an unsuccessful prototype would cost around $1.9 million and the

modifications would take an additional year to implement. He is, however, sure that all

problems would be overcome by end December 2020.

 

Following the development of a successful prototype, manufacturing would be conducted in

partner facilities in China. The manufacturing facilities require a six-month lead-time for

retooling and component sourcing for the EW and twelve months for the GPS solution.

If a successful EW prototype was developed by Dec 2019, production could commence in

July 2020. However, if the prototype development for the EW solution took until June 2020,

then production could commence in Jan 2021. Shorten estimates the retooling and

production line set-up costs for the EW solution to be $1.25m. EW units are expected to sell

for between $3500 and $4500.

 

If a successful GPS prototype was developed by Dec 2019, production could commence in

Jan 2021. However, if the prototype development for the GPS solution took until December

2020, then production would not commence until Jan 2022. Shorten estimates the retooling

and production line set-up costs for the GPS solution to be $2.7m. GPS units are expected to

sell for between $14000 and $16000.

Sales of the RLM19 would be supported by a major advertising and marketing campaign at

trade shows, direct to grounds maintenance contractors, councils and other owners of golf

GSB014 Business Decision Making and Analysis: Unit Guide

25

courses, airfields and playing fields. This would be conducted especially in the first few

months after its launch, demonstrating the major cost saving benefits. In order to estimate

the sales that would result, extensive use has been made of market research, economic and

industry-wide data. A key threat is the development of competitive products by leading

mower manufacturers and new entrants with robotics and electric motor technologies.

 

To simplify the problem, the management team has decided to estimate sales under two

different market conditions: Good, and Poor. These conditions can be assumed to prevail

through the entire life of the product. The probabilities of these conditions prevailing are

thought to depend to some extent on how quickly the product can be launched since an early

launch will give Catanza an edge over potential competitors. The Marketing Department has

estimated the following probabilities:

 

Market Conditions Prevailing Good Poor
Month Production Commences    
July 2020 0.8 0.2
January 2021 0.65 0.35
January 2022 0.5 0.5

It has been decided to use a 6-year planning horizon (i.e. up to December 2025) since

technological developments would probably mean that a new model would be required for

the market for later years. The tables below show the estimated net cash flows which will

occur during the years of the product's life.

 

  EW - Good EW - Poor GPS - Good GPS - Poor
1st year $6M $2M $10M $4M
2nd year $9M $4M $16M $7M
3rd year $12M $6M $18M $9M
4th year $16M $7M $22M $11M
5th year ** $18M $9M $26M $13M

** If required

In the event of the either prototype development being cancelled it can be expected that the

intellectual property associated with the research output will have no residual value.

 

The company's cost of capital is estimated to be 8%. For simplicity, it can be assumed that all

cash flows occur at the end of the year. Also, the effect of factors like taxation and

development grants should be ignored.

 

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